By Rev. Dorothy S. Boulware | Word In Black

(WIB) – The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints recently reported that its membership numbers are poised to match those before the pandemic caused by COVID-19—growth that seems to reflect a broader trend of increasing church attendance across the nation.

In January 2024, Rev. Howard-John Wesley baptized 156 people, making them members of Alfred Street Baptist Church in Alexandria, Virginia. And on the Sunday after Easter, Rev. Reginald Sharpe, senior pastor of Fellowship Chicago, told the congregation, including the digital watchers, that they’d actually taken in 156 new members on Easter Sunday, exceeding the targeted 100.

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Anecdotally, these seem to be signs of growing church membership in this country, or at least growth in church attendance. 

A Closer Look at Membership Growth

But maybe not. According to statistician and self-proclaimed data nerd Bryan Beverly, considering the intake of new members without considering attrition through death, life situations, and just changing membership is to celebrate prematurely. His experience as a researcher for his own church has led him to greater interest in the subject.

An increase in net growth, rather than one factor, such as baptism, could be celebrated.

“You have to account for deaths, transfers, etc. Also, since most baptisms are of children, that suggests family stability and growth from the inside versus funerals,” Beverly says.

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“You also have to look at the location of the church — and the members’ jobs, homes, and education dictate where people go to church.”

Beverly says people are joining the church he presently attends.

“If you look at the ratio of baptisms to funerals, there is a 15:1 ratio. This church is young and has about one-third of the congregation in child-birthing years. Located in the county, the church has a decent population from which to draw.” He says two people are needed to replace each one who leaves. 

According to Churchtrac, which uses Gallup polling, 20% of Americans attend church every week, 41% are in monthly church attendance or more, and 57% are seldom or never in religious service attendance. They stated that regular church attendance has steadily declined since the turn of the century, according to Gallup and Pew Research Center.

As for millennials, 39% report attending church weekly, up from 21% in 2019. Non-white millennials drive the increase in church attendance; 45% are attending church weekly, compared to 35% of white Millennials.

“In 2020 and 2021, our data represents churchgoers either settling into or opting out of online attendance,” Daniel Copeland, associate vice president of research at Barna Group, recently explained. “Despite all of the disruptions of 2020, the opportunity of online worship actually helped to boost attendance across all generations. However, in 2021, the novelty seemed to have worn off, and people’s church attendance declined significantly. Now, in 2022, younger generations especially are re-engaging in church, a shift that might potentially mark a new chapter in church attendance.”

Barna’s research said 16% of Christians who attended church pre-pandemic have stopped entirely; Boomers have stuck with their churches (65%) more than any other generation, but they have also stopped attending — a 22% loss, compared to only 13% of Millennials.

 “We serve the senior population, most of whom have been forgotten by their churches after their health has failed. We have a constant turnover as people transition from Earth to bright glory,” says Rev. Tamara Hawkins, chief overseer of My Brother’s Keeper of Linden Park Ministries.

Keys to Church Engagement and Growth

“We seem to be in a state of constant challenge to engage from scratch, people with whom we have no relationship. Ultimately, we have to redefine how we see and execute the Great Commission.”

Senior pastor Brian Jones recently wrote for Senior Pastor Central that churches serious about growth must have sound doctrine, strong biblical teaching, healthy leadership, God-honoring worship, and authentic community.

“Churches that will grow by 100 people the next year will have brought through their doors 1,000 new people and retained 10% of them.”