By Robert Hansen | OBSERVER Staff Writer

Dr. Flojuane Cofer has closed the gap behind Assemblymember Kevin McCarty in the race for Sacramento mayor. But it’s likely not enough to overcome him, and at least one expert projects McCarty has sealed victory.

McCarty leads with 51.2%, just 2.4 percentage points ahead of Dr. Cofer, as of 4:40 p.m. Friday. They are separated by about 4,000 votes.

Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data, a bipartisan voter data firm based in California, said Dr. Cofer would have to beat McCarty by 28 percentage points on the remaining ballots.

“Her best days have been eight points,” Mitchell told The OBSERVER.

It’s expected at least 17,000 votes remain to be counted.

McCarty did not declare victory Friday while acknowledging his lead in a post Friday on X.

“We continue to be cautiously optimistic, but we want to see every vote counted before making any other statement. The next update is Tuesday,” McCarty wrote.

Cofer’s campaign could not be reached for comment.

Black voters make up about 12% of ballots cast in the city election, according to numbers released by Political Data.

City Council District 2

Roger Dickinson has defeated realtor Stephen Walton, holding 60.6% of the vote to Walton’s 39.4% after Friday’s update.

Dickinson, 74, thinks his victory is a product of many people.

“I was fortunate for a coming-together of a cross section of volunteers, neighborhood leaders and community members across the district,” Dickinson told The OBSERVER. He said he looks forward to building a brighter future for District 2 and the city.

In a statement, Walton congratulated Dickinson and expressed his commitment “to working alongside him to help bring meaningful progress to our district.”

This district, covering North Sacramento and Del Paso Heights, has returned roughly 10,600 ballots, with about 9,600 counted.

Black voters represented about 13% of these returns, according to the same information released by Political Data.

Sacramento Unified School District Trustee Area 3

Jose Navarro leads RoLanda Wilkins, with 59.4% of the vote to Wilkins’ 40.6%. The numbers remain consistent with earlier reporting, indicating steady support for Navarro.

Sacramento Unified School District Trustee Area 4

April Ybarra leads with 48.2%, followed by Victoria Vasquez at 28.5% and Jay Martinez at 23.3%. The percentages suggest Ybarra is likely to retain her lead.